THE FIVE PERCENT CONFESSION! Five percent of white voters confessed. No, they wont vote for Obama: // link // print // previous // next //
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 13, 2008
JOSH GREENS BIG NOTHING-BURGER: We dont know when weve been more underwhelmed than we were when upon reading Josh Greens latest snore-bore. The piece, of course, had been massively ballyhooed. But good lord! What a prime nothing-burger.
We may go into more detail next week; theres a great deal of nothingness there to discuss. In the meantime, be warned about this:
On Sunday, Politicos Mike Allen posted this murky overview of Greens forthcoming piece. Greens piece hadnt yet appearedand surely, everyone knows how gruesome Allens work is. But so what? On the basis of Allens murky account of a piece they hadnt yet seen, many of our brightest liberals swung into furious action. They clucked in fully predictable waysabout a report they hadnt yet seen. Lets repeat the basic point: Our brightest liberals leaped into print on the basis of work by Mike Allen!
Allen seems like a nice enough guy, but everyone knows what a fly-weight he is. (His recent interview with President Bush was widely described as one of historys most embarrassing fawn-jobs.) And now we know the truth about that oddly murky report he posted. His report was basically wrong, from its headline on down. But then, why should that be surprising?
Allens headline is basically wrong. So is the claim in his opening paragraphthe claim with which he leads his piece. And he seems to work fairly hard in this piece to keep you from knowing a basic facthes quoting a memo from early 2007 in that opening paragraph. If youre even dimly alert, you can imagine a motive for thatthough it may have been simple ineptitude. But at any rate, Allen omits the date of that memoand he omits some basic buzz-kill from the memo itself.
Did scripted Democrat ogre Mark Penn tell Clinton to portray Obama as foreign? (Were working from the Politico headline.) Heres the leading buzz-kill in the memo in questiona memo which appeared roughly a year before anyone thought Clinton began playing rough:
Oops! In that memo (whose date disappeared), Penn told Clinton that she shouldnt discuss Obamas background! And this is one of the two worst memos Allen could find in Green piece! But children of the liberal world have always enjoyed their silly-bill stories. In this case, a hack named Allen omitted such buzz-killsitems which might kill our party.
Truly, our side is run by children; its one of the major reasons we lose. When Allen spoke, the children squealed. There are many things to observe about the snore-some piece Josh Green has produced. But people! Even Mike Allen can drive our discussions! Is there anyone our side wont channel if he says things which leave us well-pleased?
Something worth discussing: Last night, on Countdown, former Edwards aide Chris Kofinis hit on something Dems should discuss about Greens snore-bore snark-job:
This has been a gigantic problem for Demsand of course, we never discuss it. These self-dealers did the same thing to Candidate Gore. In the process, they did a great disservice to the nationto the world. (If it makes you happy, Mark Pennfired by Gore in the fall of 1999seemed to be involved in much of the backbiting aimed at that Dem candidate.)
Except for the rare bird like Kofinis, our side doesnt notice or care.
One example: We were told, long ago, by a journo who would know, that it was Gore campaign staffers, not the RNC, who first sent around the dirty parts of Naomi Wolfs books, thus fueling the month-flap about Wolfa flap which did gigantic damage to Gore. (Happy with the outcome?) They did this as part of an internal turf war, we were told. They wanted to diminish Wolfs role within the campaign, thereby raising their own.
You see those self-dealers on TVand they behaved the same way this time. They continue to do so, funneling private memos to Green, embarrassing Clinton and creating stories that can only do harm to Obama. They did a great disservice to Clinton, Kofinis said. That barely begins to touch it. And, except for the rare bird like Kofinis, no one on our side will say this.
We would rather tell childrens talestales we get from losers like Allen and Green. Our liberal world is very soft. Our team is very soft-headed.
The color of Green: As late as 2004, Green was still beginning reports with throw-aways about what a dissembler Gore was (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 6/18/04). In particular, he was still aggressively defending the claim that Al Gore said he invented the Internet. People like this have their ears to the groundand they have their lips locked around approved narratives. This same process plays in his new nothing-burger. These people are adjuncts to the mainstream pressthe press corps we all claim to despise. Get a clue, people! When you channel the work of fellows like Green, youre riding with Cokie Roberts.
PART 2THE 5 PERCENT CONFESSION: Will Obama win in the fall? We dont know. But Peter Beinarts piece in this mornings Post helps show you why Dems struggle so.
Beinart is all fired up today concerning the subject of race. And omigod! The fiery fellow even tackles the press corps, right in his opening paragraph! Conduct like this is unheard of:
Which media sharks does Beinart mean? He wanted to say, but he didnt have time! But surprisingly, the fiery fellow bats the press corps around at several other points in his column. Every time Republicans light the match of race, the press will create a forest fire, he predicts. Later, he goes there for the third time: Obama can't make race go away by ignoring it, especially because the GOP and the media won't.
Lets face it: Weve lived to see a very new day when Peter Beinart appears in the Post smacking the press corps around.
Beinart, you see, is the long-time editor of The New Republica liberal journal which stared into air during his tenure as Dem hopefuls got devoured by the press. By the mainstream press, that is; more particularly, by the very same Washington Post for which the fiery scribe now types. (Did silence help get him hired?) Starting in March 1999, for example, this same Washington Post waged an astonishing war against a Dem named Candidate Gore. Beinart became TNRs editor late that yearand kept his lips shut about this war for the rest of that fateful campaign. Go ahead. Just try to find Ceci Connollys name in that fiery liberal journal. Across the pond, they discussed her Gore-trashing work. (The Financial Times: Connolly was hostile to the campaign, doing little to hide [her] contempt for the candidate.). Not a word in TNR!
The wages of silence are sometimes advancement. On Sunday, Michelle Cottle (TNR) wrote a predictably snore-some op-ed piece in the New York Times. Today, Beinart (TNR) presents his monthly piece in the Washington Post. Just a guess: In part, they reached these stations thanks to their silenceabout that war on Gore, for example. Sure, we got Iraq as part of the deal. But two career libs won their wings!
So forgive us for rolling our eyes a bit as Beinart assails that vile press corps. In fact, three of our analysts choked on their bagels while reading his second paragraph:
Gore and Kerry were two of those Demsand Beinart largely stared into air as the pair got hammered. Quite clearly, the press corps was creating a forest fire in 1999 and 2000and the editor kept his lips tightly shut. Today, Beinart arrives at the scene a bit late, while offering a solution for Obama. Before we scan his rescue planwhich he may have spent five minutes devisinglets scan his view of Obamas problem. Almost surely, this problem is realthough something else needs to be said:
Estimates by political scientists arent always worth the pixels they useand we arent quite sure what Beinart means when he suggests that 17 percent of white Dems will resist voting for Obama. But it seems fairly clear that Barack Obama will lose some votes because of his race. Before we discuss Charles Blows attempt to estimate how many votes that might be, lets consider the closing part of that graf by Beinart.
Why isnt Obama farther ahead in the polls? Why does this election remain close? Well take a guess: To some extent, Obama isnt farther ahead because his opponent, John McCain, has received a dozen years of fawning publicity from the mainstream press corpsfawning publicity Beinarts journal has rarely done much to address. Mainstream journalistsat the Post, for examplehave made fools of themselves through the year, gasping at the sanctified solons many unmatchable virtues. A progressive outlet would have challenged this clowningbut such push-back might keep young journalists from sinecures at the big news orgs which helped make McCain such a saint. Could that be what held Beinart back? Needless to say, we have no idea. But in the last sentence of that paragraph, Beinart almost suggests that some other Dem might be farther ahead at this point. We know of no reason to think that is so, and we think we should all ponder why.
According to Beinart, race is a major reason that this election...remains close. That may well be true. But would Hillary Clinton be farther ahead if she were the presumptive nominee? We know of no reason to think so. Would John Edwards have been farther ahead, even without his sexual affair? If Al Gore had gotten into the race (as some libs pleaded), would he be farther ahead at this point? We doubt thatbecause, as everyone knows, there has been something massively wrong with every Big Dem (except, perhaps, Obama) over the past dozen years. Hillary Clinton was and is evil; Al Gore was a fake and a liar; Edwards was the Breck Girl. The same press corps which Beinart scolds pushed all these narratives down through the yearseven as they broke their backs making saints of McCain and Giuliani. (His middle name was Americas Mayor.) The New Republic sat and staredand Beinart appears today in the Post. Race may well be hurting Obama. But trust us, it has always been somethin. And TNR rarely complained.
This morning, Beinart has a rescue plan for Obamaan action plan on which he has lavished perhaps five minutes of thought. The plan puts Beinart on the right side of everything, as insiders measure such things: Hes against racism, and against racial preferences, and he isnt required to name the media players who are creating that storm about race. Would his action plan help Obama? Does his action plan make sense? We have no huge view on either question, partly because his plan is so vague. Which race-based preferences should Obama replace? Most such preferences arent under the control of the presidentand some of these preferences make decent sense. Beinart gets on the right side of everythingbut he doesnt waste time on the details.
So lets put Beinarts plan to the side and return to the problem he describes. Could Obama lose this election because some white voters reject his race? Charles Blow discussed the same possibility in Saturdays New York Times. Yes, he bungled that elementary statistic (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 8/12/08). But these were the basic data he cited from the most recent Times/CBS survey:
Good for Blow, for noting the fact that matters like this are difficult to measure. How many votes might Obama lose because some whites wont be willing to vote for a black candidate? In the poll, a five percent confession occurred; five percent of white voters said they wouldnt vote for a black candidate. (Uh-oh! Six percent of black voters told the Times the same thing!) But if those five percent are all Republican voters, Obama wouldnt be losing their votes. As Blow says, this worlds somewhat murky.
Beinart has done his good deed for the month. Luckily, he didnt speak on behalf of Goreso we get to enjoy his brilliance today! But Blow explored a murky worlda shadowy bias thats hard to measure. As he limned the Times polling data, how well did he fight through the haze?
TOMORROWPART 3: The 19 percent accusation.
Yes, thats what they said: Yes, thats what the poll reported. Six percent of black respondents said they wouldnt vote for a black candidate. We have to guess about what that means, for reasons well discuss on the morrow.
To peruse the Times poll, just click here. For that question, see page 27.