TAKE THE WAKE COUNTY CHALLENGE! Kevin Drum reviewed Bazelons work. Today, we offer a challenge: // link // print // previous // next //
FRIDAY, JULY 25, 2008
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER: Elisabeth Bumiller always seems like a pleasant person when we see her on TV. But really, her work today is just awful. She starts her Political Memo with silly snark aimed at McCaina tone she largely maintains to the end. Along the way, she produces hapless accounts of the current dispute about the surge, and about the way this weeks oil spill interacts with McCains offshore drilling proposal. Overall, she snarks at McCain. But before shes done, she bungles and fuzzes in ways that cut against both contenders.
During Campaign 2004, Bumiller wrote a weekly series of softball profiles of Candidate Bush. (Her gruesome White House Letters.) This time around, she may be rooting the other way. And then, good God! Heres Jeff Zeleny, writing about Obama:
Except as an attempt at reverential cheerleading, that sentence is so awful that it defies comprehension.
Sniffing the zeitgeist about sixteen years later, some liberals seem to be implying these days that the press corps is in the bag for McCain. We see a much more varied picture. This morning, Howard Kurtz quotes Terence Smith. Can this possibly be what he said?
Can that possibly be what he said?
In our view, the dumbness of this years general-election coverage has been its defining feature. By now, the corps has perfected the flight from substance, even as we look ahead to Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, global warming, health care, energy restructuring. (Did Al Gore say something last week? Not in the world of the press corps.) But wed have to say we see different courtesies being extended to the two candidates. Some elements that hated the Clintons and Gore are plainly playing on Obamas side. (Chris Matthews would be an obvious example.) That doesnt mean that theyll trash McCain, or even cover him intelligently. It means that the balance of preferences and courtesies are quite different than theyve been in the past.
Four years ago, Bumillers somnolent, slow-motion softballs were balanced by nothing at all in the Times. This morning, she starts with snark aimed at McCainand pretty much snarks her way to the end. And by the way, darlings: How perfectly silly it is to discuss the cost of a gallon of milk! The Dalai Lama is so much more central! This silly gang never changes its spots. It only adjusts who it roots for.
TAKE THE WAKE COUNTY CHALLENGE: Wed planned to wait until next week to discuss Emily Bazelons piece in detail (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 7/24/08). But yesterday, a bit of good news: Kevin Drum addressed the Bazelon piece too. Now, for a bit of bad news: In our view, Kevin challenged the lesser of the articles two major flaws, but left its larger flaw intact. Because Kevin is a sober, sensible, highly capable analyst, we thought the time had come to act! And so, today, we ask Kevin Drum: Please take the Wake County challenge!
Well extend this suggestion to a few others over the weekend, including Bazelon herself. (For Bazelons piece, just click here.)
First, lets get clear on what Bazelon said in her high-profile reportand lets note the flaw Kevin cited. In this, the opening to his post, he sketches Bazelons principal claimand he accepts its accuracy. For the record, Kevin refers to yesterdays HOWLER, not to a private communique:
According to Kevin, Bazelon says that academic achievement for all races shows dramatic gains when the proportion of low-income students in a school falls below 50 percent. That isnt a perfect account of what Bazelon says, but it comes fairly close. (As near we can tell, Bazelon only claims dramatic gains for low-income students.) Plainly, Kevin accepts this principal claimthough he raises a different complaint about Bazelons piece.
Kevins complaint? Due to simple demographics, big urban systems cant integrate classrooms in the manner prescribed; school systems full of low-income kids cant create classrooms where middle-class kids are in the majority. As Kevin notes, Bazelon mentions this problem, but only in passing; like Kevin, we thought this was a flaw with her article. (Why produce such a high-profile piece about a solution which cant be implemented?) But in our mind, that was the lesser flaw in Bazelons piece. The greater flaw involves her treatment of the claim which Kevin accepts.
Is it true? Does academic achievement for all races show dramatic gains when the proportion of low-income students in a school falls below 50 percent? As he continues, Kevin cites one of Bazelons major pieces of evidencethose famous test scores from Wake County, North Carolina (Raleigh and environs). As Kevin notes, these test scores now stand as a holy grail. Theyre endlessly, cheerfully flogged:
Well have to disagree with Kevins first judgment. In fact, there is something wrong with writing about Wake Countyif the data keep getting misrepresented. And it seems to us that Bazelon, like many before her, has done this again. Quite badly.
Wake County is the nations nineteenth largest school system, Bazelon says. But did Wake County produce dramatic gains in academic achievement when it integrated its classrooms by social class? Youd surely think so from Bazelons piece. What follows is her basic presentation about Wake County. This is also one of her principal claims on behalf of her reports major premise:
Impressiveif plainly illogical. According to Bazelon, only 40 percent of Wake Countys black students (grades 3-8) passed state reading tests in 1995. By 2007, the rate had almost doubled, to 82.5 percent, she writes, with striking illogic. In fact, if Bazelons data are accurate, the rate has plainly more than doubled. But Bazelons data dont seem to be accurate. And even if her data turn out to be right, her lack of sophistication about test scores is quite plainly showing. Even if her data are accurate, these apparent score gains arent likely all that importantand they dont seem to stand as a ringing endorsement of Wake Countys unique procedures.
Are Bazelons basic data right? Not according to North Carolinas official web site, though its possible that conflicting sets of data could be floating around for some reason. At this link (its hard to find within the state education site), the state provides a useful tool for gathering data about passing rates on the states reading and math tests. Here are the passing rates for Wake Countys black students, according to this official state site:
Obviously, thats still a large gain in the passing rate. According to the states official web site, the passing rate has in fact almost doubled in the twelve years in question. In 1995, 51.6 percent of Wake Countys black students passed the state reading test (grades 3-8). By 2007, the passing rate was much higher; it now stood at 82.8 percent.
Even after replacing Bazelons data, these data seem to present a striking testimonial to Wake Countys procedures. But, in fact, they just dont.
Among black students, Wake County was slightly outperforming the state in 1995and it was slightly outperforming the state in 2007. The change in passing rate statewide is virtually identical to that in Wake County. In the state as a wholeas in Wake Countythe passing rate among black kids was 31 points higher by 2007. That looks like good news (though it probably isnt). But it has nothing to do with Wake County.
To state the blindingly obvious: Whatever caused that gain in the statewide passing rate, it wasnt the class-based integration plan, which was in effect in Wake County only. Unless something is grossly wrong with the states official data, the claim that Wake Countys plan produced those striking improvements seems to be utterly bogus. And yet, as Kevin noted, the miracle gains of the Wake County plan are endlessly dragged out for flogging, as Bazelon did in Sundays Times. Once again, readers were told that the Wake County plan produced striking improvements. The claim simply seems to be false.
Bottom line: If we use the states official data, there is no apparent reason to think that Wake Countys plan has produced striking improvements (impressive gains) among black students, since those very same score gains have occurred all over the state. Our own guess would involve a less happy idea: Wed start by wondering if the states reading tests have simply gotten easier over the years, thereby driving up passing rates statewide, not just in Wake County. And no, we arent the first to raise this obvious possibility. Indeed, even as passing rates have soared on North Carolinas state-run testing program, North Carolina students have registered little progress on the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the well-known gold standard of national testing (details below). This fact has been noted again and again. People like Bazelon ignore it.
Below, we show you the passing rates on the state reading tests for black students in a range of years. (Again, these are the states official data.) Wake Countys progress plainly tracks that in the state as a whole. In both jurisdictions, we see modest progress from 1994 through 1997; then, in 1998, we see the first significant, single-year bump in the passing rate. In all these years, Wake County closely tracks the state as a whole. Whatever is driving these changes in scores, it looks like a statewide phenomenon:
By the way, the rest of Bazelons presentation is bogus too. Wake County's numbers improve as students get older, she writes, cheerleading heartily; 92 percent of all eighth graders read at or above grade level, including about 85 percent of black students and about 80 percent of low-income students. Sorrythose are statewide phenomena too. Here are the corresponding statewide data for eighth-grade students in reading:
Bazelon tub-thumps for Wake Countys procedures. But the phenomena she observes in Wake County are, once again, with minor variation, observed for the state as a whole. In North Carolina as a whole, the passing rate is a bit higher in the eighth grade; this is not some sort of Wake County phenomenon.
But readers, does it even matter whats true and whats false? With amazing regularity, truth and falsehood havent seemed to matter much when it comes to the lives of poor children. Big news orgs have pimped pleasing bull-roar for decades; unless something is grossly wrong with North Carolinas official data, Bazelon continued the practice last Sunday. Does this sort of thing ever stop? Or are low-income children really just toysplay-things for hapless elites?
Kevin is a very good analystand so, today, we officially ask him to take the Wake County challenge. Clearly, passing rates among black kids have changed a great deal in North Carolina. But is there any reason to attribute this change to procedures followed in Wake County, since the gains in question have occurred statewide? We think its time for major liberals to address the flaw in the Wake County storya story which is endlessly flogged, as Kevin correctly noted.
Or is this all a hoax, a scam? Do black kids exist to be lied about? After decades of work of this type, the answer is far from clear.
The problem: When we pretend weve found a solution, the search for real solutions stops.
The question: Are those North Carolina score gains real? Or are they the product of easier tests?
Question for those who take the Wake County challenge: Since Wake Countys score gains are observed statewide, can they sensibly be attributed to Wake Countys particular programs?
Final question: Do you really believe what Bazelon says? Do you believe that 92 percent of all eighth graders [in North Carolina] read at or above grade level? If you believe that, we have a nice piece of Mars-front property to sell you. History has come to an end if that claim turns out to be true.
One more final question: As noted yesterday, the Times describes Bazelon as a senior editor at Slate who writes frequently about legal issues. Our question: Why do we assign legal writers to puzzle out educational topics? In the way weve describedand in many othersBazelons piece is very weak work. We see no sign that Bazelon was suitable for this topic. (Similarly, we dont write about nuclear physics, as you may have noticed.)
About the data: Once again: Were using the official data from the states official web site. Well be happy to see these data corrected or refined in any way thats appropriate. Once again, we dont know where Bazelon got that 40 percent figure for 1995. (Her data about Wake Countys eighth-grade passing rates match those on the states web site.) This weekend, well try to find outand well ask a few other libs to take the Wake County challenge.
Does it matter whats true and whats false? Were not sure what the answer might be. Do low-income children matter?