COMPARED TO WHAT! Obamas plan saves four trillion bucks. Four trillion compared to what? // link // print // previous // next //
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 27, 2011
Are we in it for the long haul: Andrew Leonard is asking good questions about our ongoing political mess. To read his piece at Salon, you know what to do: Just click here.
But first, a quick bit of background:
New York magazine has published an interesting profile of Paul Krugman, the liberal worlds most valuable journalist. Working from that profile, Leonard moves to a basic political question: Could Obama have passed a bigger stimulus package if he had asked for more? This is a proxy for a wider set of questions about the way Obama tends to do politics.
Leonard is skeptical about the idea that Obama could have gotten more. For ourselves, we have no Ouija board, so we arent sure what would have happened. But we think this passage raises an important set of questions:
Leave aside the question of who is being naïve here. In our view, Leonard is asking a very good question. This leads to an important point about American political history over the past thirty years.
Might Obama have made out better if he tried for a bigger stimulus packageif he proposed single-payer? (He didnt run on single-payer, of course. No major Democrat ever has.) For ourselves, we have no way of knowingbut this question doesnt seem to enter the minds of many fiery liberals. At the start of her recent Outlook piece, liberal activist Sally Kohn was whining hard about Obama. In our view, her whining wasnt gigantically smart:
Kohn listed four laments about Obamaand three possible problems. Other possible problems didnt seem to enter her head. She didnt mention the need for sixty votes in the senatea situation which left Obama relying on senators Nelson and Lieberman in the health care debate. And she didnt mention something else:
The groaning lack of progressive politics over the last thirty years. The groaning lack of progressive frameworks and understandings within our political culture.
People like Kohn seem to think that a president can arrive in DC and magically transform American politicsmagically change the way a sprawling electorate understands public issues. Were sorry, but it just isnt like that! In the New York piece, Krugman says this about Obama: "It's not a values difference. I think Obama was and is committed to the welfare state. We dont know if thats true about Obama. On the other hand, were fairly sure that the term welfare state is a major political killer within the American context.
Why does our side still use it?
For the past thirty years, the conservative and corporate worlds have massively out-worked the leftto the extent that there is a left in this country. (In many cases, the left has been purchased. This is part of the conservative/corporate plan.) They have aggressively spread conservative frameworks; on our side, weve massively slept. But many of our most fiery liberals dont seem to see this long-range problem. Yesterday, we were hugely struck by the highlighted Digby comment:
For ourselves, weve never understood why Digby is so obsessed with Peterson. (And with his teen-aged grandson. Were always amazed when they drag in the kids.) We can think of many people we would demonize first. But good God! Who are we kidding here? Nothing Peterson said in the past two years has affected the publics perception at all!
In large part, the publics perceptions have built up over the past three or four decadesa period in which there was no action whatsoever from anyone on the left. (At the top of the press corps, Krugman is the most notable exception, by far.)
True story: We have had our keisters kicked over the past forty years. Few progressives have been active at all. Others have simply been purchased. (Theyve been neutered, in Grover Norquists comical, accurate rendering.) We have often been played for fools by official liberalsby various famous people whom we still dumbly revere.
People like Kohn think short-term yelling will work. But we face a much longer haul.
Three cheers for Robin Wells: In New York, Benjamin Wallace-Wells helps explain the genesis of a well-written book:
That book is extremely clearly written; its extremely approachable. If we had two brain cells to bang together, we would use its presentations in outreach to others.
But we liberals tend to avoid such conduct. Outreach to those people? Yuck!
PART 3COMPARED TO WHAT (permalink): Quite appropriately, coverage of Paul Ryans budget plan has largely focused on Medicareon his transformation of the venerable program into a voucher system.
This proposal strikes us as a very bad idea. But even here, we the people manage to get confused about basic facts; sometimes, were helped along by our major journalists. Last night and this morning, MSNBC was playing tape of Ryan at a town hall meeting in his home district. In the first exchange on the tape, a young man is shown saying this:
MSNBC didnt show Ryans answer. Well guess he started by asking this man how old his grandmother is. Ryans very bad proposal affects no one who is over age 54 at presentand this constituent seemed to be in his twenties.
Grandma might be in line for a voucher from Ryan. But well guess this young man might be better advised to worry about himselfand about his mother and father.
(To judge this constituents age for yourself, just click here. The question starts about 1:30 inafter Rachel chuckles and vamps about the tough questions Ryan got, thus helping us learn to adore her.)
Just a guess: Eventually, most people will know that Ryans proposal excludes those who are currently 55 or older. In itself, this is part of the proposals strangeness; under Ryans proposal, a transition period would occur in which one spouse might receive the current version of Medicare while the second spouse got stuck with a voucher. That said, the Ryan and Obama plans are both premised on the need to reduce future budget deficits. And to date, the press corps coverage of this seminal matter has been a groaning mess.
As weve noted, this mess reveals the pitiful way our journalistic and intellectual culture functions. Its hard to wrap the mind around how very dumb we actually are as a (floundering) people.
Good lord! By how much would honestbrave Ryans plan reduce future budget deficits? If you read the New York Times, theres an answer to suit every taste! The editors have seemed to say that there would be no deficit reduction over the next ten years. Meanwhile, on the papers front page, readers have been told that Ryans plan achieves $4.4 trillion in deficit reduction in that ten-year periodwhile other reports have seemed to suggest that its really $1.8 trillion (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 4/26/11).
Reading the Times on this seminal topic recalls the joke about New England weather: If you dont like the size of Ryans deficit reductions, just wait a while!
By the way: Lets assume that Ryans plan really would produce $4 trillion in deficit reduction. (Thats the amount of deficit reduction Obama seemed to attribute to Ryans plan in his own budget speech. Text below.) Tell the truth: Do you have the slightest idea how much new debt would accrue in the next ten years even with that amount of reduction? Put another way: Under current projections, how much new debt will we acquire in the next ten years if no budget plan gets passed?
Its always possible that weve missed something, although weve searched the Nexis archives on several occasions. But in the Washington Post and the New York Times, we have seen no attempt to answer this bone-simple question. On this, our current top political topic, were basically flying blind. Our biggest newspapers make little attempt to provide even bone-simple information and analysis. Truly, its hard to comprehend the depth of our cultures intellectual squalorbut that squalor has been with us, largely unnoticed, for a considerable time.
This brings us to something else you dont understand. Here it is:
When Obama gave his budget speech, he described the amount of deficit reduction which would occur under his plan. Aw heck! Lets reprint what he said about both major budget proposals:
Obama wants to reduce deficits by $4 trillion over twelve years. This raises a point we dont understand, a question we cant answer:
Four trillion dollars compared to what? To what is Obama comparing his budget proposal when he makes that statement?
Were baffled by that question. Heres why:
Normally, budget proposals get compared to what would happen under current law. That is, the new proposal gets compared to the level of spending and taxing and debt acquisition which will occur if things proceed as scheduledif no change in current law occurs.
This procedure can be misleading. Sometimes, current law includes assumptions which everyone knows to be bogus. But unless were completely deranged, budget proposals of this type are normally scored in comparison to what would happen under current law.
Presumably, that isnt the case when Obama says that his plan would produce $4 trillion in deficit reduction. Unless were completely deluded, a great deal of deficit reduction would occur under current law. Unless were massively confused, current law calls for the end of the Bush tax rates at the end of next year. If this occursif we return to the tax rates of the Clinton erathis would produce a great deal of deficit reduction all by itself.
Could Obamas relatively modest proposals really produce $4 trillion in deficit reduction as compared to that? We would assume that the answer is no. But heres the basic problem:
Go ahead! Fire up whatever search engine you like! Search the past month of the New York Times or the Washington Post. Try to find where these mighty newspapers answered a bone-simple question.
Obama has said that his budget plan would reduce deficits by $4 trillion. But go aheadtry to answer this question:
Four trillion dollars compared to what?
We dont know the answer to that. Our question:
Do you understand?
Tomorrow: Politifact rules