DATA DUMPED! Ravitchs claims are highly persuasive. Until you look at the data: // link // print // previous // next //
WEDNESDAY, APRIL 7, 2010
Olbermann [HEART] Tom Coburn: All of a sudden, Senator Coburn (R-Oklahoma) is a liberal heart throb! At a recent town hall meeting in Oklahoma, Coburn told a room full of Oklahomans that they have been misled by Foxand that Nancy Pelosi is a nice person, although shes wrong on the merits. For Steve Benens account of this interesting matter, just click here. But we were especially struck when we saw Keith Olbermann pimping this story last night, helped by our own Gene Robinson.
Egads! On several occasions, Coburn had told his constituents the truth: They keep getting played by Fox. He told one woman that she had been played about the idea that shed go to jail if she didnt buy health insurance. He told the whole room that they had been played about what Pelosi is like as a person. Beaming like a pure-bred hack, KO played the audiotape of this fascinating statement by Coburn:
As he continued, KO played tape of something else Coburn said at that meeting. What Coburn said was quite wise:
For ourselves, we agree with the various things Coburn said. For that reason, we came away from this segment asking a basic question:
Is there a bigger hypocrite/fraud on the planet than our own Keith Olbermann?
We asked that question for two reasons. First, we remembered how hacks like Olbermann behaved the last time they got mileage from Coburn. They jumped up and down and played the fool, pretending that Coburn had said something offensive to then-nominee Sonia Sotomayor (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 7/20/09). In fact, Coburn had conducted a long, respectful colloquy with Sotomayor; he then voted against her nomination on what he said were the merits. But just as Fox enjoys doing with Pelosi, hacks like Olbermann like to pretend that people on the other side have to be bad evil racists. That was the card our own hacks played on that occasion with Coburn. (In the months since then, Maddow has endlessly played the bad person card about the fact that Coburn lived at C Street. And yesthat is what shes done.)
We shook our heads for a second reason. As Olbermann of course understands full well, Coburn would say these same things about Olbermann himself and MSNBCand he would be right. Lets be candid: MSNBC does have an agenda now too. We liberals are constantly being biased by [MSNBC] that somebodys no good, just as conservatives are being biased by Fox. Olbermann is a humongous hack; he has lost his soul in the past seven years. This has rarely been as clear as it was during last nights segment.
Final point: Coburn did something very important on March 31. He stood before a room of citizens and told them theyre being misled. For years, we have screamed, howled, shouted and yelled, suggesting that liberals need to develop platforms from which we respectfully go before these voters and tell them this same darn thing. But none of those voters would ever listen to a word KO or Maddow said. Our own leaders have endlessly mocked, and ridiculed, and insulted the voters who sat in that room with Coburn. Those voters would never listen to us when we told them the truth about Fox. We have traded away our relevance, as our clowns and hacks push their own agendasagendas which are closely tied to the corporations desire to make large profits.
It was one year ago next week that Maddow, and then Olbermann, spent an entire week directing dick jokes at the voters who sat in that room with Coburn. Last night, Olbermann pretended to be impressed when Coburn stated an obvious fact: Just because somebody disagrees with you doesnt mean they are not a good person.
Olbermann and Maddow dont really believe that. This explains how they could have staged that repulsive, week-long orgy last year, as their idiot boss looked on.
Olbermann is consummate hacka millionaire lost soul, a vintage poor immigrant. This was on full display last night as he played his liberal viewers againjust as they do on Fox.
PART 3DATA DUMPED (permalink): Diane Ravitch is an (educational) party-switcher (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 4/5/10). For that reason, shes currently hot. I used to be a strong supporter of school accountability and choice, Ravitch writes, at the start of an op-ed column in last Fridays Washington Post. But in recent years, it became clear to me that these strategies were not working.
These are very important matters. For that reason, its important to know if Ravitchs foundational claim here is accurate. Is it true that these strategies havent been working? In the opening paragraph of her column, Ravitch offered a statistic designed to support this stance:
Ravitch paints a gloomy picture in the highlighted passage, though her meaning needs to be teased out a bit. From what she writes, its fairly clear that there have been gains in math since No Child Left Behind took effect; Ravitch complains that the gains in math were larger before that date. When she discusses reading, she goes back to 1998 to make a gloomy claimeighth-graders have made no improvement in reading since that date.
On the surface, it isnt clear why wed go back to 1998 to assess a program (NCLB) which started in 2002. That said, the movement for school accountability and choice was in wide effect, at the state-by-state level, long before No Child Left Behind. If there has been no progress since 1998, that would suggest that the foundations of this movement must be severely flawed.
Those statistical claims are very importantbut are they actually accurate? First, lets consider the claim Ravitch made about reading. For our money, this claim is grossly misleading, like other statistical claims we have seen in Ravitchs work.
Ravitchs claim helps drive us toward the latest educational fad, just as her work tended to do when she was serving the previous fad. But her claim also misleads the public. When it comes to the lives of low-income children, will this sort of thing ever stop?
Have American kids made progress in reading since 1998? Ravitch refers to the recently-released, 2009 reading scores from the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP). On-line, her column offers this link, and so we offer it too. But while Ravitchs claim is technically accurate in the narrow sense, it is also grossly misleading. In fact, American kids have shown significant progress on the NAEP reading tests since 1998. And theyve shown massive gains in math during that same period. (The NAEP tests fourth- and eighth-graders, in reading and math.)
Since 1998, what sort of progress have fourth- and eighth-graders shown in reading and math on the NAEP? Lets start with reading, the subject from which Ravitch cherry-picked that statistic. And lets review the disaggregated data, which lets us examine the progress of our big demographic blocks (white kids, black kids, Hispanic kids) separately.
In fourth-grade reading, American kids seem to have shown good progress since 1998. (Click here, then move ahead to page 9, Figure 4.) Since 1998, white kids have gained five points on the NAEP scale; by the rough rule of thumb which is often used, this would be equivalent to roughly one-half year of growth. And things only get better from there. Black fourth-graders have gained twelve points in reading during that period, roughly 1.2 years. Hispanic kids have made the same gaintwelve points, 1.2 years. Warning! This rough rule of thumb is very rough; we long for the day when some major newspaper asks NAEP officials to discuss the meaning of these score gains in some serious detail. (Along with other true experts.) But this rough rule of thumb has been widely used; its surface logic is apparent. (Dont ask.) If we do apply that rough rule of thumb, those score gains seem quite consequential.
By the way: Children scoring at the tenth percentile have also gained twelve points in reading during that period (move back to page 8, Figure 2). This suggests that our current lowest-achieving fourth-graders are more than a year ahead of their counterparts from 1998. If thats true, its remarkable progress.
The picture in eighth-grade reading is worse. (Move ahead to page 26, Figure 15.) In fact, this is the worst of the four possible measures, which presumably explains why Ravitch featured it. Since 1998, white eighth-graders have only advanced three points on the NAEP scale in readingperhaps three-tenths of a year. Black eighth-graders have advanced only two points. That said, Hispanic kids have advanced six pointstheoretically, more than half a year. Kids at the tenth percentile have also advanced by only three points (page 25, Figure 13). This is the gloomiest of the NAEPs four subject categories. But do these figures represent no improvement in reading since 1998? Maybe it all depends on what the meaning of no is.
This brings us to math. In math, fourth- and eighth-graders seem to have shown strong progress on the NAEP just since the year 2000. (The NAEP didnt test math in 1998.) Black fourth-graders gained a full nineteen points on the NAEP scale from 2000 to 2009. (Click here, move ahead to page 9, Figure 4.) Hispanic kids also gained nineteen points, white kids a mere fourteen. Fourth-graders who scored at the tenth percentile gained eighteen points. And when it comes to math, this pattern obtains among eighth-graders too (move ahead to page 24, Figure 15). Black eighth-graders gained seventeen points on the NAEP scale from 2000 to 2009. Hispanic kids gained thirteen points; white kids gained twelve. Eighth-graders scoring at the tenth percentile gained thirteen points during that period (move back to page 23, Figure 13).
Lets say it again: We dream of the day when some major newspaper shakes the cobwebs out of its head and asks true experts to offer their take on what these score gains actually mean. But the New York Times has routinely applied that ten points equals one year rule of thumb; if that rule of thumb is close to accurate, some rather large achievement gains were indicated in reading and math between 1998/2000 and 2009. What was the cause of these score gains? Did these score gains possibly stem from some worthwhile aspects of the testing/standards/accountability movement? Surely, we might want to find outor at least askbefore we launch the next fad.
Granted, Ravitchs newest proposalWe should teach science and history!doesnt count as much of a fad, although we whole-heartedly agree with that prescription. (For one thing, deserving children learn how to read by immersing themselves in those subject areas.) For our money, Ravitch doesnt seem to have a lot of suggestions about where we should go from herebut that has frequently been the case among our educational experts. Tomorrow, well offer our own modest thoughts about changes we might engineer in the classroom, although we have no way of knowing what sorts of gains these changes might cause. But well leave you with a couple of questions as we close this mornings musing:
Was Ravitch conveying an accurate picture when she authored that gloomy claim? (No improvement in reading since 1998.) Did her opening paragraph present an accurate picture of the way these NAEP scores actually look? The NAEP tests kids in fourth and eighth grades; it tests these kids in reading and math. Based on the data to which we have linked you, are you sure its time for a smokin new fad? Time to dump all past procedures?
We ask these questions because they matterbecause the lives of those children matter. The lives of our educational experts more often seem tied to hot fads.
Tomorrow: Where are the liberals?
Since 2002: How about Ravitchs other claimthe claim that gains in math have slowed in the years since NCLB? This looks like a highly feathered claim. Black eighth-graders gained twelve points in math from 1996 through 2003; thats 1.7 points per year. They gained nine points from 2003 through 2009; thats only 1.5 points per year. (On the other hand, Hispanic eighth-graders have gained marginally more in math, on a per-annum basis, since 2003.) But this seems to be an extremely feathered claimthe type of claim which may be technically accurate, but actually tends to mislead.
Remember: The standards-and-accountability movement was in full swing long before No Child Left Behind. Are you as sure as Ravitch seems to be that she was bad wrong the first time?